Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) merupakan indikator penting dalam menilai kondisi ketenagakerjaan di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengelompokkan 34 provinsi berdasarkan pola fluktuasi TPT periode 2015–2024 menggunakan metode aglomerative hierarchical clustering. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa Bali hampir selalu memiliki TPT terendah karena pariwisata padat karya, sedangkan TPT tertinggi bervariasi pada provinsi seperti Kepulauan Riau, Jawa Barat, DKI Jakarta, dan Kalimantan Timur akibat faktor industrialisasi, urbanisasi, serta ketergantungan pada sektor pertambangan. Evaluasi metode menunjukkan average linkage paling optimal dengan nilai koefisien korelasi cophenetic 0,722. Clustering menghasilkan dua kelompok, yaitu cluster 1 dengan rata-rata TPT tinggi dan cenderung bertahan, serta cluster 2 dengan rata-rata TPT lebih rendah dan relatif stabil. Temuan ini menegaskan adanya disparitas ketenagakerjaan antarprovinsi yang penting diperhatikan dalam kebijakan pengangguran di Indonesia.
The Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) is an important indicator for assessing labor market conditions in Indonesia. This study aims to cluster 34 provinces based on the fluctuation patterns of OUR from 2015 to 2024 using the agglomerative hierarchical clustering method. The results show that Bali almost consistently records the lowest OUR due to its labor-intensive tourism sector, while the highest rates vary among provinces such as Riau Islands, West Java, Jakarta, and East Kalimantan, driven by industrial fluctuations, large population size, rapid urbanization, and dependence on mining sectors. Method evaluation indicates that the average linkage approach is the most optimal, with the highest cophenetic correlation coefficient of 0.722. The clustering analysis produces two groups: cluster 1 with relatively high and persistent OUR, and cluster 2 with lower and more stable OUR. These findings highlight labor market disparities across provinces that need to be addressed in Indonesia’s employment policies.